![]() As a consequence, the military’s influence on and within government has grown to a level not seen in Venezuela since the end of Marcos Pérez Jiménez’s dictatorship in 1958. As of January 2019, 9 of 32 government ministries were controlled by the military, including the ministries of agriculture and energy. The militarization of the government has continued under Chávez’s successor, Maduro. According to Transparencia Venezuela, at least 60 of the 576 state-run companies are led by the military, including PDVSA. As a result, military officers took on key positions in state-owned companies, ministries and funding agencies. Perhaps more importantly, Article 236 granted Chávez the right to approve promotions of colonels and generals-an instrument he used regularly to purge dissidents and promote loyal officers. Article 328 of the new constitution, for example, incorporated the armed forces into the maintenance of social order and the formulation of Venezuela’s national development plans. This served as the foundation for the military’s rise to the higher echelons of political power. One of Chávez’s first and major accomplishments was to approve a new constitution in 1999, creating the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, also known as the Fifth Republic. This bargaining process was reinforced under the Chávez administration, which offered the military political power, money and arms, and strengthened the development of a military–government symbiosis. Since 1958, the Venezuelan armed forces have traded military support for the government in exchange for money, power and prestige. Military incentives: power, money and arms The final decision will largely depend on the offers made by Maduro and Guaidó. Amid these developments, the military is on the cusp of an important choice: preserve the status quo or support a new leader. Since February, about 560 soldiers, who recognized Guaidó as the country’s interim president, have fled to Colombia. Nevertheless, despite Padrino’s assurances, cracks have formed in the military’s support for the Maduro administration. ![]() ![]() So far, the bulk of the military has remained loyal to Maduro: in the wake of the National Assembly’s appointment of Guaidó as interim president, the defence minister, Vladimir Padrino, stated that Venezuela’s armed forces disavow any president who is self-proclaimed. This feature of Venezuelan politics has not gone unnoticed by Guaidó, who has attempted to garner support from the armed forces by offering amnesty to defectors. The administration of President Hugo Chávez (1999–2013) further strengthened the position of the armed forces by populating the state bureaucracy with military officers and implementing large-scale arms modernization programmes, which took Venezuelan military spending to record levels. The 1958 Punto Fijo Pact-the political agreement aimed at preserving democracy in Venezuela in the post-authoritarian period-rested on a compromise with the military: in return for transferring power to civilian hands, the military would have its equipment modernized and its salaries revised. Historically, the armed forces have played a decisive role in the country’s politics: the military oversaw Venezuela’s transition to democracy in 1958 and has had a strong influence on domestic politics ever since. However, countries such as China, Cuba and Russia continue to back Maduro and recognize him as the legitimate president of Venezuela.Īlthough the support of foreign states is an important factor in the current political standoff between Maduro and Guaidó, it is the Venezuelan military that will determine whether there is any shift in power. The USA has also imposed sanctions on the state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), and several state-owned banks. ![]() Since January 2019, about 65 countries-including the United States and states in Western Europe and most of South America-have given their support to Guaidó. Guaidó’s claim to power is a severe blow against the already weakened government of Nicolás Maduro, whose re-election as president in May 2018 was widely rejected by the international community and deemed illegitimate by over 50 foreign governments. In January 2019 Venezuela’s opposition-led National Assembly swore in congressman Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim president.
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